27 Jun 2019
By Kevin Gahagan

Case-Shiller: Annual Home Price Growth Slows for 13th Consecutive Month

Market Outlook

Case-Shiller Annual Home Price Growth Slows for 13th Consecutive MonthCase-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index for April showed further declines in home price growth with 2.50 percent year-over-year home price growth as compared to March home price growth of 2.60 percent. New York City home prices held steady month-to-month and Seattle, Washington’s home prices were unchanged year-over-year after posting 13 percent home price growth in 2018.

The top three cities with the highest rates of year-over-year home price growth were Las Vegas, Nevada with 7.10 percent growth; Phoenix, Arizona followed with 6.0 percent growth and Tampa, Florida reported 5.60 percent home price growth. All three cities were hard-hit during the recession. While U.S. home prices are rising, they aren’t rising as fast as in prior years. The fastest home price growth rates remained in single digits as compared to double digit home price growth rates posted in recent years.

Changing geography played a role in this year’s home price growth as San Francisco, California, Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington fell to sun-belt cities east of the west coast. Astronomical home prices and pronounced shortages of homes in many west coast cities caused home buyers to seek affordable homes elsewhere.

The Case-Shiller 10-City Home Price Index posted a year-over-year gain of 2.30 percent in April as compared to its March reading of 2.20 percent. Analysts said that slower gains for home prices indicated more normalized price conditions, but noted that home price growth remains about 1.50 percent ahead of inflation.

Buyers Benefit from Slower Home Price Growth, More Available Homes

First-time and moderate income home buyers were sidelined by competing investors and cash buyers as home prices rose quickly, but may find it easier to compete as market conditions achieve a balance of advantages to home buyers and sellers.

The flip side of easing home price growth may be that prospective buyers who are leery of buying at peak market prices will put off buying homes. Low mortgage rates continued to boost affordability and decreasing shortages of homes provided buyers with more options. Homebuyer sentiment is likely to vary according to economic trends, regional and personal circumstances.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in refinancing your current property, be sure to contact your trusted home mortgage professional to discuss current financing options.

 

29 May 2019
By Kevin Gahagan

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in March

Market Outlook

Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slows in MarchCase-Shiller Indices reported slower home price growth in March with a 3.70 percent gain year-over-year as compared to 3.90 percent home price growth for the year-over-year period in 2018. This was the slowest pace of home price growth in seven years.

The 20-City Home Price Index showed Las Vegas, Nevada as having the top year-over-year home price growth rate of 8.20 percent; Phoenix, Arizona had year-over-year home price growth of 6.10 percent. Tampa, Florida had the third highest growth rate for home prices at 5.30 percent. Analysts said that all three cities continue their recoveries from deep home price declines during the recession.

Did Home Prices Grow Too Fast?

David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the S&P Dow Jones Index Committee, said that given strong economic signs in other sectors, housing should be doing better. He said that too-high home price gains may have caused slowing growth in home prices as fewer prospective buyers can afford skyrocketing home prices in many metro areas.

The 20-City Home Price Index showed New York City was the only metro area posting a negative growth rate in March; this was attributed to the region’s already high home prices. Fluctuating mortgage rates likely sidelined some prospective home buyers, especially first-time and moderate income buyers.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that home affordability reached a ten-year low in the end of 2018. Coupled with short supplies of affordable homes and builders focusing on high end housing development, shortages of affordable homes are expected to continue, particularly in high demand metro areas.

Slower home price growth indicates that the rapid rise in home prices in recent years aren’t sustainable as fewer prospective buyers can afford to buy homes or cannot qualify for purchase money mortgages. When home prices rise faster than inflation and wages, home buyers encounter more challenges in their searches for affordable homes.

 

09 May 2019
By Kevin Gahagan

Case-Shiller: February Home Price Growth Rate Slowest in 6.50 Years

Real Estate

Case-Shiller February Home Price Growth Rate Slowest in 6.50 YearsHome price growth slowed in February according to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Home price growth hit its lowest rate in more than six years; this indicates that the roaring growth of home prices is settling and could provide opportunities for more would-be buyers to enter the housing market.

The 20-City Housing Market Index rose 0.20 percent in February as compared to January. Year-over year home prices grew by 3.00 percent and missed analyst expectations of a 3.20 percent growth rate. The 20-City Index reported slowing trends in home price growth and emerging trends in housing markets within metro areas tracked.

California’s Hold On Top Housing Price Growth Topples

Home price growth in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco, California slowed enough to lose their hold on highest home price growth rates seen in recent years. San Francisco was the only city to lose ground in national home price growth with a reading of 1.40 percent growth.

The top three cities with highest gains in home prices were Las Vegas, Nevada with year-over year home price growth of 9.70 percent; Phoenix, Arizona home prices grew by 6.70 percent and Tampa, Florida where home prices grew by 5.40 percent year-over-year.

No double-digit home price gains were reported in the 20-City Home Price Index in February; as a comparison, home prices in Seattle, Washington had grown at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 12.70 percent a year ago. Rapidly rising home prices slowed in California due to lack of homes for sale coupled with affordability.

Buyers seeking affordable homes in temperate climates shifted their searches to metro areas offering more homes for sale at affordable prices. While fluctuating mortgage rates impact homebuyers depending on home loans, slower rates of home price appreciation can encourage would-be home buyers to enter the market.

Regional Home Price Growth Trends Shift

Home price growth slowed nationally; Case-Shiller’s February reading showed a year-over-year rate of 4.00 percent growth as compared to January’s reading of 4.20 percent home price growth. David M. Blitzer, chair and managing director of the S&P Indices Committee, cited slowing growth in new home sales, housing starts and residential investment as more signs of cooling housing markets. Mr. Blitzer also said that regional trends in home prices growth were shifting. While home price growth in East and West Coast and Great Lakes regions slowed, home price growth gained in inland areas.

 

28 Mar 2019
By Kevin Gahagan

Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slower in January

Real Estate

Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slower in JanuaryHome price indices issued by S&P Case-Shiller showed further slowing in home price growth in January. The national home price index showed 4.30 percent home price growth for the three months ended in January. Analysts expected home prices to grow 4.20 percent for the same period in cities surveyed by Case-Shiller. More cities reported declines in home prices than those that posted gains in home prices.

The top cities posting year-over-year home price gains in the 20-City Home Price Index were Las Vegas, Nevada with 10.50 percent growth; Phoenix, Arizona posted a year-over-year home price gain of 7.50 percent. Three cities tied for third place with Charlotte, North Carolina, Minneapolis, Minnesota and Tampa, Florida posting year-over-year home price growth rates of 5.10 percent.

Home Price Growth Stalls Throughout U.S.

Noteworthy in January’s readings were the West Coast’s loss of dominance in home price growth rates and the retreat of double-digit yearly growth rates for home prices. Las Vegas, Nevada posted the only double-digit price gain year-over-year, but it suffered steep declines in home values during the recession. The 20-City HPI for January showed month-to-month home price growth slowed in 14 cities, was unchanged in one city and five cities posted gains in home price growth rates.

David M. Blitzer, managing director and chair of the S&P Case-Shiller Index Committee, said that the home prices had not grown so slowly since April 2015. Rapidly rising home prices sidelined many buyers who could not afford to keep up with home prices that rose faster than inflation and wages. Analysts said that housing markets were leaning in favor of home buyers as home price growth slowed. Mr. Blitzer said that it “remains to be seen if recent low mortgage rates and smaller price gains can sustain improved home sales.”

Federal Reserve policymakers recently announced that the Fed would hold steady on its target federal funds rate range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent; this fueled a drop in mortgage rates. Analysts said that rates could continue to fall. Slower home price growth and lower mortgage rates are expected to encourage would-be home buyers back into the market.

If you are interested in purchasing a new property or refinancing your current property, be sure to contact your trusted home mortgage professional to discuss financing options.

04 Mar 2019
By Kevin Gahagan

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 4th, 2019

Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 4th, 2019Last week’s economic reports included readings from Case-Shiller Housing Price Indices and Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits issued.

Readings on pending home sales and consumer confidence were released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims.

Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slows to Lowest Rate in Four Years

Home prices continued to grow in December but reached their slowest pace since November2014. Seasonally-adjusted annual home price growth reached 4.70 percent in December as compared to growth of 5.10percent year-over-year in November.

Analysts cited high home prices, and slim inventories of available homes, although demand for homes eased in some metro areas. Affordability and accessibility to mortgages sidelined low and moderate-income buyers; some buyers allegedly gave up on buying homes.

Building more homes is necessary for relieving the housing shortage; real estate pros, mortgage lenders and home buyers rely on home builders to provide enough housing for first-time buyers and existing homeowners to transition from renting to owning and for existing homeowners to move up to aspirational homes. 

Housing starts fell short of expectations in December with a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.078 million starts. Analysts expected 1.28 million starts based on November’s reading of 1.214 million housing starts. Construction was affected by winter weather and higher costs for building materials.

Pending Home Sales Rise in January

Pending home sales increased in January; sales with signed purchase contracts rose 4.6- percent as compared to December’s negative year-over-year reading of -2.30 percent. The National Association of Realtors® said that all four U.S. regions reported higher readings for pending home sales. The Northeast reported 1.60 percent more pending sales, Midwest and Southern regions reported increases of 2.80 percent and 8.90 percent, and the Western region reported 0.30 percent more pending home sales.

Mortgage Rates, Hold Steady New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported no change in 30-year fixed mortgage rates, which averaged 4.35 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed rate mortgages dropped one basis point to 3.77 percent; mortgage rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were unchanged at 3.84 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims matched expectations of 225,000 claims filed as compared to 217,000 first-time claims filed the prior week. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index rose to an index reading of 131.4 and exceeded the expected reading of 124.7.

January’s reading was 121.7. Rising consumer confidence may compel would-be home buyers to enter the housing market during peak buying season in spring and summer.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on January housing starts, construction spending, and new home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will be released along with labor-sector reports on public and private sector jobs and the national unemployment rate.