Financial Report

The Consumer Sentiment Report was the sole important report to take place the prior week, keeping with the trend of the cooling-off period that happens the weeks following the CPI and PPI data releases.

Consumer sentiment this time around has come to be slightly below expectations and falling to a 6-month low, marking a great change in overall sentiment towards the clear trend in rising costs in goods and services. It is largely expected that the Federal Reserve, even with the recent improvement in data, will maintain its stance at holding rates at the current position until a later date this year.

Consumer Price Index

A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in six months in May on expectations of higher inflation, according to a survey released Friday. The second of two readings of the consumer-sentiment index was 69.1 in May, a sharp decline from 77.2 in April, the University of Michigan said. The final reading was slightly higher than the initial estimate of 67.4.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 6.24%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.08% with the current rate at 6.94%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing an increase by 0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.70%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing an increase by 0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.72%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 223,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric PCE Index Prices, but the more impactful metric has largely always been the CPI and PPI reports. There will also be the release of the Chicago PMI report which will headline manufacturing data and the current state of the manufacturing industry. Tailing up the two major reports is the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

The prior week showed a surprising display of inflation,  in that for consumers, it was less than expected. This is giving way to some optimism that inflation is on the right track to being under control.

On the other end of the spectrum, for producers, inflation had shown to be slightly higher than expected. But the far higher impact of the two reports is the Consumer Price Index. 

The Federal Reserve had still stuck to their stance as from the last FOMC opting to withhold any rate reduction decisions until late in the year, but the data coming in largely on a positive note has changed the previously highly negative outlooks into a neutral stance.

Consumer Price Index

The cost of consumer goods and services rose 0.3% in April, largely because of higher oil prices and housing costs, as inflation remained elevated in key parts of the economy. Yet the increase in the consumer price index last month fell below the 0.4% forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Producer Price Index

U.S. wholesale prices jumped 0.5% in April in another sign of sticky inflation. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a smaller 0.3% increase in the producer price index.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.10% with the current rate at 6.28%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.07% with the current rate at 7.02%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing no change for this week. Current rates at 6.62%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing no change for this week. Current rates at 6.64%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 231,000 compared to the expected claims of 214,000. The prior week landed at 208,000.

What’s Ahead

Extremely light week ahead after the inflation data releases. Heading up the most influential releases, the FOMC minutes will be highlighting potential plans for the future of rate decisions, among the regular job data releases.

An extremely light week following the FOMC, with the only note-worthy reporting being the Consumer Sentiment reports from the University of Michigan, which gives a long term outlook of the consumer on the economy. The report has come in well under expectations, much more so than any previous release in the last 6 months. This is largely due to the increase in the cost of living for every sector.

Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 67.4 in a preliminary May reading, down from 77.2 in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.09% with the current rate at 6.38%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.13% with the current rate at 7.09%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.08% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.62%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.08% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.64%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 231,000 compared to the expected claims of 214,000. The prior week landed at 208,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week we’re expecting new rounds of inflation data from CPI and PPI reports. Given the current data that has been released, the inflation problem is expected to still be a small sticking issue. 

Week in Review

With the passing of the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision panel, we now have definitively confirmed that the Federal Reserve intends to keep the rates at a two-decade high, for the sixth straight meeting by a unanimous vote. Jerome Powell had stated during the Q&A that they do not intend to cut rates until they have confidence that inflation will, “sustainably stay lower than the 2% objective.”

Lending partners have responded in kind by a rush in an increase of rates the last three weeks in a row, with expectations tempered about impending rate cuts any time soon.  Markets across the board have experienced a cooling off as a result. Manufacturing has seen a slow trend downwards since the start of the year as reflected in the recent PMI and ISM data releases.

FOMC

Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to leave the benchmark rate unchanged in the target range of 5.25%-5.5%. Decision is unanimous for the 15th straight meeting.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence fell in April for the third straight month and touched a 21-month low due to the high cost of food and gas and fresh worries about the jobs market. The consumer-confidence index sank to 97.0 this month from a revised 103.1 in March, the Conference Board said Tuesday. That’s the lowest level since July 2022.

Chicago PMI

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped sharply to 37.9 in April. That is the lowest level since November 2022.

ISM

The Institute for Supply Management said Friday that its service-sector PMI dropped sharply to 49.4% in April from 51.4% in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.03% with the current rate at 6.47%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% with the current rate at 7.22%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.25% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.70%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.24% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.72%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 208,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The prior week landed at 207,000.

What’s Ahead

An extremely light week following the FOMC. The only expectation is weekly jobless claims data and consumer credit reports. 

At Wednesday’s meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain the current federal funds rate target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. This decision comes amidst conflicting economic signals. Tailing that, there is the Chicago PMI, Non-farm Payrolls, and the full release of the Consumer Confidence report. All of these are expected to match current economic conditions.

The prior week’s GDP numbers also factor into the equation, informing that economic growth has slowed this year compared to the previous year for Quarter 1. The PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred choice of inflation indicators, has shown inflation is within expectations but the whole picture is clear.

PCI Index

Prices in the U.S. jumped again in March based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index, signaling that progress on reducing inflation has stalled. The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% gain.

GDP

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday that the U.S. economy is “firing on all cylinders” even as the GDP report showed economic growth coming in well below economists expectations.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% with the current rate at 6.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.07% with the current rate at 7.17%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.03% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.02% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.96%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 207,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.

What’s Ahead

Prior to the most recent data reports, there was high optimism that the Federal Reserve would cut rates this Wednesday. With a clear picture with data to back it up, those initial expectations have tempered significantly.