09 Jul 2018
By Kevin Gahagan

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 9th, 2018

Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 9th, 2018Last week’s economic releases included monthly readings on construction spending, public and private sector job growth and June’s national unemployment rate. Weekly readings included Freddie Mac mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Construction Spending Rises in May

According to the Commerce, construction spending rose 0.40 percent in May; public sector construction spending rose 0.70 percent and private sector spending rose by 0.30 percent. Residential construction rose by o.80 percent, which analysts regarded as a good sign for the economy. Building more homes has long been identified as the only solution for persistent housing shortages that cause high demand for homes and rapidly rising home prices.

Analysts said that volatility and heavy revisions to government reporting, construction spending readings are subject to significant change. April’s reading of 1.90 percent growth was downwardly revised to 0.90 percent growth.

Mortgage Rates and New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgages were three basis points lower at an average of 4.52 percent. 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.99 percent and were five basis points lower than for the previous week. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.74 percent and were 13 basis points lower than for the prior week.

First-time jobless claims fell last week to 231,000 new claims as compared to 200,000 new claims expected.and 244,000 new claims were filed in the prior week.

Unemployment ticks up as Public and Private Sector Job Growth Slows

ADP payrolls fell to 177,000 private sector jobs were added in June as compared to 189,000 jobs added in May. The Commerce Department reported 213,000 public and private sector jobs added in June, which beat expectations of 200,000 jobs added in June. 244,000 jobs were added in May.

The National unemployment grew to 4.0 percent in June as compared to May’s reading of 3.80 percent. Analysts attributed the rise in the unemployment rate to 600,000 new job seekers entering the market in June.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation, core inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

02 Jul 2018
By Kevin Gahagan

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 2nd, 2018

Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 2nd, 2018Last week’s economic reports included readings from Case-Shiller housing market indices and data released on new and pending home sales. Weekly releases on mortgage rates and first-time unemployment claims along with the Consumer Sentiment Index for June were also posted.

Case-Shiller Reports Rapid Home Price Growth in April

April home prices ticked downward by one-tenth percent for the National Home Price Index, which reported 6.40 percent growth year-over-year. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index also dipped by one-tenth percent to 6.60 percent year-over-year. Analysts note that home prices continue to outpace wage growth and inflation, which limits affordability for many prospective home buyers.

Seattle, Washington held the top spot on the 20-City Home Price Index with year-over-year home price growth of 13.10 percent; Las Vegas, Nevada followed with year-over-year home price growth of 12.70 percent and San Francisco, California reported home price growth of 10.90 percent year-over-year. New York, New York was the only metro area to report negative home price growth. Analysts said recent tax law changes and a glut of new apartments impacted home prices.

New Home Sales Rise as Pending Home Sales Fall

Sales of new homes rose in May to a seasonally-adjusted annual level of 689,000 sales. Analysts expected 668,000 sales based on April’s downwardly-revised reading of 646,000 new homes sold. Year-to-date, sales of new homes were 8.80 percent higher than for the same period in 2017.

Rapid home price growth has been driven by high demand and limited inventories of homes for sale. Supplies of new homes dipped from a 5.40-month supply in April to a 5.20-month supply of homes for sale. Real estate pros consider a six-month supply of homes an average inventory.

Pending home sales dipped in May by -0.50 percent,  as compared to April’s reading of -1.30 percent. Low supplies of available homes have sidelined buyers who haven’t found homes that they want or can afford. High demand has created bidding wars and cash buyers in some markets have sidelined moderate-income buyers and those who need financing to purchase homes.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by two basis points to 4.55 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.04 percent and were unchanged from the prior week.

The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was four basis points higher at 3.87 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims rose to 227,000 first-time claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 218,000 claims filed. Analysts expected 220,000 initial jobless claims.

Consumer sentiment fell to an index reading of 98.20 in June as compared to May’s reading of 99.30. according to the University of Michigan.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending and minutes of the most recent meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, Labor sector readings on Non-Farm payrolls, ADP payrolls and national unemployment will also be released.

Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will be released on schedule.  U.S. Financial Markets will be closed on Wednesday in observance of Independence Day.

25 Jun 2018
By Kevin Gahagan

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 25th, 2018

Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 25th, 2018Last week’s economic reports included readings from the National Association of Home Builders, Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits issued. Sales of pre-owned homes were reported along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Builder Confidence Slips as Trade Wars Boost Lumber Prices

According to the National Association of Home Builders, home builder confidence in current market conditions was down two points to 68 as compared to May’s index reading of 70. Analysts said that rising lumber prices impacted builder sentiment and have replaced labor costs as builders’ primary expense.

Increased building costs were cited as a concern for builders despite high demand for homes and limited homes for sale. Rising materials costs were attributed to trade wars caused by recent tariffs on lumber.

NAHB said that three components of the Home Builders Housing Market Index were also lower in June. Builder confidence in current market conditions slipped one point to an  index reading of 75; builder confidence in market conditions within the next six months also dropped one point to 76.

Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments dipped one point to 50. Any reading over 50 indicates more builders than fewer were confident about housing market conditions.

Housing Starts Hit 11-Year High in May

May housing starts surpassed April’s reading of 1.280 million starts on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. May’s reading of 1.350 million starts also surpassed expectations of 1.300 million starts. Higher volume and faster pace of building homes was good news for real estate and mortgage industry pros, as building more homes is the only way to relieve marked shortages of available homes in many areas.

Rising materials costs could dampen construction pace as tariffs and resulting trade wars increase. May’s reading for housing starts was the highest since 2007 and was 20.00 percent higher year-over-year.

Building permits issued in May were 4.60 percent lower than April’s reading. Building permits were issued at a pace of 1.301 million permits on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.

Sales of Pre-Owned Homes Slip as Supply Tightens

Previously owned homes sold at a slower pace in May as short supplies of homes constrained already tight markets. The National Association of Realtors® reported 5.43 million sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Analysts expected a reading of 5.52 million sales based on April’s reading of 5.45 million sales. May sales of previously owned homes were three percent lower year-over-year.

Analysts said that there is little relief in sight and that there is a growing disparity in home sales; sales of homes worth $250,000 or more were up six percent, while sales of homes worth less than $250,000 fell by eight percent. Short supplies of homes for sale encouraged bidding wars and sidelined first-time and moderate-income buyers.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week; the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped five basis points to 4.57 percent; rates for a 15-year fixed mortgage were eight basis points lower at 4.04 percent and rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were unchanged at an average of 3.83 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages, 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and were 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell to 218,000 claims filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 221,000 new claims filed and expectations of 220,000 new claims.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, new and pending home sales and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

04 Jun 2018
By Kevin Gahagan

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 4th, 2018

Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 4th, 2018Last week’s economic reports included readings on Case-Shiller home prices, pending home sales and construction spending. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were released, along with monthly labor-related reports on job creation and the national unemployment rate.

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Maintain Rapid Growth

S&P Case-Shiller home price indices for March showed home prices continued to grow at blazing rates. Seattle, Washington held on to first place with a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 13.00 percent; Las Vegas, Nevada reported 12.40 percent growth in home prices in March.

Analysts said Las Vegas markets benefitted from homebuyers relocating from high-priced coastal areas. Las Vegas home prices were 25 percent below their housing bubble peak. San Francisco reported year-over-year home price growth of 11.40 percent

Home prices were driven by short supplies of homes for sale and high demand among buyers, which led to bidding wars in high-demand areas. Rapidly rising home prices sideline first-time and moderate-income buyers who face hurdles of affordability and strict mortgage approval requirements.

While real estate pros and economic analysts expected home price growth to reach a tipping point where demand for homes would slow down, it hasn’t happened yet. Strong economic conditions and jobs data provided first-time buyers incentives to transition from renting to owning.

Pending Home Sales Slow in April

Pending home sales, which are sales under contract but not yet closed, dropped by -1.30 percent in April as compared to the March reading of 0.60 percent. Severe winter weather contributed to the lag, but analysts said severe shortages if available homes squeezed would-be buyers to the sidelines as they waited for more buying options. The National Association of Realtors® said that April’s reading was the third consecutive month of lower pending home sales.  

Construction spending rose by 1.80 percent in April and surpassed expectations of a one percent increase and the negative March reading of -1.70 percent. This could be a hopeful sign if accelerated spending is due to growing construction projects, but ongoing concerns over increased materials and labor costs may have contributed to builders’ cash outlay.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims Fall

Mortgage rates eased last week, with average rates lower across the board. Freddie Mac reported the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by 10 basis points to 4.56 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was nine basis points lower at 4.06 percent; rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.80 percent and were seven basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.40 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell last week to 221,000 claims filed. Analysts expected 225,000 new claims filed based on the prior week’s reading of 234,000 new claims filed. May payroll reports supported stronger labor markets as ADP reported 178,000 jobs added as compared to 163,000 private-sector jobs added in April. Non-farm payrolls, which measure private and public-sector job growth, rose by 223,000 jobs in May as compared to 159,000 jobs added in April. The highlight of May labor reports was an 18-year low of 3.80 percent national unemployment rate for May.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on job openings, mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

07 May 2018
By Kevin Gahagan

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – May 7th, 2018

Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – May 7th, 2018Last week’s economic releases included readings on inflation, construction spending and private and public- sector payrolls. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also posted.

Inflation Meets Fed Goal, Construction Spending Lower

March inflation reached a year-over-year rate of two percent, which is the Federal Reserve’s goal for inflation. Inflation rose by 0.20 percent in March to 0.40 percent; analysts expected inflation to rise 0.50 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, met expectations with 0.20 percent growth.

Construction spending was lower in March with a negative reading of -1.70 percent. Analysts predicted an increase of 0.50 percent based on February’s one percent increase in construction spending. Construction costs were five percent higher year-over-year, and builders cited long-standing concerns with lot shortages. Tariffs on building materials fueled rising materials costs. Analysts said construction spending remains strong.

Mortgage Rates, Jobs Data Mixed

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped three basis points to 4.55 percent. Rates or a 15-year fixed rate mortgage were one basis point higher at 4.03 percent. Rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged five basis points lower at 3.69 percent.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee elected not to raise the target federal funds rate from its current range of 1.50 to 1.75 percent; when fed rates are raised, private lenders including mortgage banks typically raise home loan rates.

New jobless claims were lower last week with 211,000 new claims filed. Analysts expected 225,000 new claims based on the prior week’s reading of 209,000 new jobless claims.

ADP Payrolls reported 204,000 private-sector jobs added in April as compared to the March reading of 228,000 jobs added. The Commerce Department reported 164,000 public and private sector jobs added in April, which was lower than expectations of 184,000 jobs added. The national unemployment rate for April dipped to 3.90 percent as compared to expectations of 4.0 percent and March’s reading of 4.10 percent.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic readings include job openings, mortgage rates and new jobless claims. The University of Michigan will also release its monthly Consumer Sentiment Index.