Interest Rates

Last week’s economic reports included readings on construction spending, public and private-sector jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Rises in August

Construction spending rose 0.10 percent higher than in July according to the Commerce Department. Analysts expected construction spending to increase by 0.60 percent based on June’s reading of -0.70 percent. Construction spending was -2.70 percent lower year-over-year based on revisions to data going back to 2008.

Construction spending was impacted by multiple factors including costs of labor and building materials and inclement weather in some areas of the United States. As peak home buying season winds down to fall and winter, builders are expected to reduce spending. Builder concerns over the impact of tariffs on imported building materials continued to affect builders’ budgets.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Weekly Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages was nine basis points lower at 3.49 percent. Rates for 15-year mortgages were six basis points lower and averaged  3.00 percent.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.30 percent and were one basis point lower. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims rose by 1000 claims to 217,000 new claims filed. Analysts expected 214,000 initial jobless claims based on the prior week’s reading of 216,000 first-time claims filed. No signs of layoffs were indicated in relation to the higher reading for new jobless claims.

The monthly reading for new jobless claims showed 216,250 new claims filed and was higher by 1500 new claims filed. The monthly reading is considered more stable than week-to-week readings for initial jobless claims.

Public and Private-Sector Jobs Reports Mixed, Unemployment Rate Holds Steady

ADP reported 195,000 private-sector jobs added in August. The Commerce Department reported 130,000 public and private sector jobs added; analysts expected 170,000 jobs added in August. The national unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.70 percent.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on inflation, retail sales and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included  readings on home price trends, pending home sales and weekly readings on average mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims. The University of Michigan also released consumer sentiment report.

Case-Shiller Reports Slower Home Price Growth in June

According to Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for June, home prices gained an average of 2.10 percent year-over-year. This was the slowest growth of home prices since 2012. Analysts said that home prices grew at one-third the 6.30 percent that home prices grew last year.

Home prices grew fastest in Phoenix, Arizona with year-over-year growth of 5.80 percent; Las Vegas, Nevada home prices rose 5.50 percent and Tampa, Florida reported 4.70 percent growth in home prices.

West coast cities led home price growth in recent years when home prices were rapidly increasing, but growth has slowed and Seattle, Washington reported negative year-over-year growth of home prices in June.Potential obstacles to home price growth include rising materials costs due to tariffs on imported building materials and concerns over slowing economic growth.

Pending Home Sales Lower in July

The National Association of Realtors® reported fewer pending home sales in July as compared to June. Pending sales, which are defined as sales for which purchase contracts have been signed, but sales not closed, fell by -2.50 percent in July as compared to 2,80 percent growth in June. Real estate pros said that the peak home-buying season slows as summer progresses.

All four regions reported fewer contract signings for previously-owned homes in July; the Northeast reported -1.60 percent fewer pending sales, the Midwest had -2.50 percent fewer pending sales and the South reported -2.40 percent fewer sales contracts signed. The biggest dip in contracts signed was in the West with sales contracts -3.40 percent lower than for June.

Analysts and real estate pros expected falling mortgage rates to boost home sales, but current homeowners took advantage of low mortgage rates to refinance their mortgages as would-be home buyers were unaffected by low mortgage rates.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates for fixed rate loans; rates rose three basis points on average for 30 and 15-year fixed rate mortgages. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.58 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.06 percent and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rates averaged 3.31 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages

Initial jobless claims rose from the prior week’s reading of 211,000 to 215,000 new jobless claims filed last week. Analysts expected 214,000 new claims to be filed. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to an index reading of 89.8 as compared to the expected reading of 92.3 and July’s reading of 92.1. August’s reading was the lowest measurement of consumer sentiment since 2012.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending and data on public and private-sector jobs growth and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included readings  from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index and July readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on initial jobless claims and mortgage rates were also released.

NAHB: Home Builder Sentiment Remains High

According to the National Association of Home Builders, builder confidence in housing market conditions rose one point to an index reading of 66 for August. Housing Market Index readings showed that builder sentiment has held steady with readings of 64 to 66; any reading over 50 indicates positive builder sentiment.

Analysts said that despite strong readings for builder confidence in recent months, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued did not reflect high builder confidence readings. Reports on housing starts and building permits issued fall one month behind the NAHB Housing Market Index.

Housing Starts Falter as Building Permits Increase

Commerce Department readings for July showed mixed results for housing starts and building permits issued as starts fell from June’s  downwardly revised reading of 1.24 million starts to 1.19 million starts in July. Housing starts are calculated on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.

July building permits rose from June’s reading of 1.232 million permits to 1.336 million permits issued. Analysts expected a reading of 1.287 million housing starts for July. This was the second consecutive positive reading for housing starts after a post-recession period of fewer starts.

While building permits for single-family homes traditionally outpace permits issued for multi-family housing, analysts noted that demand for multi-family housing developments is trending higher due to high prices for single-family homes.

Increasing costs for building materials, indications of  global and domestic economic uncertainty and changing consumer priorities were cited as trends impacting housing starts.

Mortgage Rates Hold Near Record  Low, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported little change in mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages was unchanged at 3.60 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.07 percent and were two basis points higher.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell one basis point to 3.35 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims rose last week to 220,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 211,000 new jobless claims filed. Analysts expected 212,000 claims to be filed last week. Nearly 6000 new jobless claims filed in California boosted last week’s reading for new claims.

The less volatile four-week rolling report on new jobless claims rose by 1000 claims to  213,750 new claims filed. New jobless claims hit their highest level in six weeks, but were lower than average.

Consumer sentiment concerning current economic conditions fell 6.20 points to an index reading of 92.1 according to the University of Michigan monthly survey of consumer confidence in the economy. Concerns over trade wars and the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower its target interest rate range prompted consumer confidence to slip in August.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on sales of new and previously owned homes and minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included readings  from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index and July readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on initial jobless claims and mortgage rates were also released.

NAHB: Home Builder Sentiment Remains High

According to the National Association of Home Builders, builder confidence in housing market conditions rose one point to an index reading of 66 for August. Housing Market Index readings showed that builder sentiment has held steady with readings of 64 to 66; any reading over 50 indicates positive builder sentiment.

Analysts said that despite strong readings for builder confidence in recent months, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued did not reflect high builder confidence readings. Reports on housing starts and building permits issued fall one month behind the NAHB Housing Market Index.

Housing Starts Falter as Building Permits Increase

Commerce Department readings for July showed mixed results for housing starts and building permits issued as starts fell from June’s downwardly revised reading of 1.24 million starts to 1.19 million starts in July. Housing starts are calculated on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.

July building permits rose from June’s reading of 1.232 million permits to 1.336 million permits issued. Analysts expected a reading of 1.287 million housing starts for July. This was the second consecutive positive reading for housing starts after a post-recession period of fewer starts.

While building permits for single-family homes traditionally outpace permits issued for multi-family housing, analysts noted that demand for multi-family housing developments is trending higher due to high prices for single-family homes.

Increasing costs for building materials, indications of  global and domestic economic uncertainty and changing consumer priorities were cited as trends impacting housing starts.

Mortgage Rates Hold Near Record Low, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported little change in mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages was unchanged at 3.60 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.07 percent and were two basis points higher.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell one basis point to 3.35 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims rose last week to 220,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 211,000 new jobless claims filed. Analysts expected 212,000 claims to be filed last week. Nearly 6,000 new jobless claims filed in California boosted last week’s reading for new claims.

The less volatile four-week rolling report on new jobless claims rose by 1,000 claims to  213,750 new claims filed. New jobless claims hit their highest level in six weeks, but were lower than average.

Consumer sentiment concerning current economic conditions fell 6.20 points to an index reading of 92.1 according to the University of Michigan monthly survey of consumer confidence in the economy. Concerns over trade wars and the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower its target interest rate range prompted consumer confidence to slip in August.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on sales of new and previously owned homes and minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic releases included readings on consumer credit, job openings and weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

Consumer Credit Use, Job Openings Slow in June

Consumer credit use slowed in June as credit card use lost ground. Non-revolving credit, which typically includes education and auto loans, grew at its slowest pace in three months. Mortgage loans are not included in the Federal Reserve’s report on consumer credit. Consumer credit use grew by $14.6 billion year-over-year in June as compared to May’s year-over-year reading of $16.0 billion.

Year-over-year credit use fell one percent in June to 4.30 as compared to May’s year-over-year reading of 5.30 percent. Credit card use fell by 0.10 percent in June, which suggested that consumers held off on large purchases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said ,”households are in pretty good shape overall.” in reference to current economic conditions.

Job openings fell in June, but maintained a 15-month streak of seven million or more job openings. There were 7.35 million jobs open in June as compared to May’s reading of 7.38 million jobs open. Job openings rose in retail and real estate, but were lower in construction, leisure and hospitality categories.

Analysts said that shortages of skilled labor and fears over the effects of trade wars caused fewer hires. The trade war with China has not broken the longest period of economic growth in U.S. history, but escalation of trade disputes could further slow economic growth if trade wars aren’t resolved.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims Fall

Mortgage rates dropped last week according to Freddie Mac. Rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.60 percent and were 15 basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.05 percent and were 15 basis points lower.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages dropped ten basis points to 3.36 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent, 0.50 percent and 0.30 percent respectively.

Initial jobless claims fell last week to 209,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 217,000  first-time claims filed. Analysts expected a reading of 215,000 new jobless claims filed for last week.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on housing market conditions, housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will also be released.