19 Dec 2018
By Kevin Gahagan

How Will Interest Rates Affect the Market in 2019?

Real Estate

How Will Interest Rates Affect the Market in 2019Forbes and other reputable publications have predicted a continued rise in interest rates over 2019. The initial shock of the Fed’s action caused a slowdown in real estate markets over the final part of 2018. As the shock wears off, experts are divided as to whether more expensive money will continue to translate into lower housing starts and occupancy rates for primary markets.

Many experts believe that the rising 2018 interest rates have not yet baked themselves into the real estate market. They point to past instances of relatively high real estate hikes and the slower uptake into the property market the following year. Proponents of fast action uptake point to a much closer relationship between federal interest rates and the consumer real estate market.

The Edge Of The Housing Affordability Curve

Most consumers were hanging on the edge of housing affordability during the time of low interest rates, this set of experts argues. The second that the Fed raised interest rates, a portion of Millennials immediately became unable to buy a first house or even retain occupancy in more expensive real estate markets such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York.

The Fed’s Limited Reach?

The Fed controls short-term rates, but the market controls long-term rates. Over time, these long-term interest rates will be much more influential on how the real estate market will perform over the next five years. Most experts expect commercial banks to try to hold down long-term interest rates to maintain a balance between supply and demand in new housing starts. They stand to lose money over the next few quarters if they cannot accomplish this. However, the banks may struggle to control long term interest rates due to news of the Fed raising interest rates which may scare some people out of the market.

Millennials and Secondary Markets Run The World

For those who want to draw a trend line moving forward, real estate activity in secondary markets may be a good leading indicator of how the rest of the market will behave. Watching cities such as Nashville, San Diego, San Jose and Dallas may provide insights as to just how many displaced Millennials will be able to access the housing market in the United States over the next few years. This is the core group that will control housing prices in America, so they are definitely the ones to watch in terms of movement.

For up to date financial information, be sure to contact your trusted mortgage professional.

18 Dec 2018
By Kevin Gahagan

What is the Multifamily Market in 2019 Looking Like?

Real Estate

What is the Multifamily Market in 2019 Looking LikeA growing supply of housing, volatility in the marketplace and risks in the development process all affected the multifamily market in 2018. In 2019, these three factors will continue to move the needle.

The Housing Supply

Markets like Boston, Seattle and Nashville are growing supply faster than demand. From 2015 to 2017, developers were building like crazy and landlords were enjoying rent increases of 5-7% year over year. They built too much, and the peak has showed itself. Only top markets like Atlanta and Charlotte can justify their cost of living increases. The rest will likely see slower growth and possibly losses in rent values and occupancy rates.

Market Volatility

Secondary markets are experiencing problems in their local economies, which is driving away the multifamily market. Fewer jobs means less security. Most multifamily clients are looking for stability, and they move into and out of markets based on that. Experts are predicting a consolidation of these families into larger markets.

Interest Rates

The volatility in the market has been accompanied by higher interest rates, which makes money harder to borrow. The seller’s market has held out for so long that a turnaround was almost inevitable, and most experts agree that the current trend is more than just a short term hiccup. We are looking at a real market correction.

The Effect

These three variables come together to create a multifamily market that is looking better for buyers than it has in a long time. Entrants into the market who have been waiting for a price dip began to see it in the latter part of 2018. All signs point to this price trend continuing into 2019.

Just as important as price is location. Although multifamily units will probably be in high supply in secondary markets, these units will be more difficult to fill. What you may see is a consolidation towards markets like Atlanta and Charlotte from multifamily buyers as well as renters.

You may also see speculators who choose to purchase in secondary markets and wait for a turnaround. In both cases, you can probably expect a more balanced overall landscape that will eventually stabilize into market values that are anywhere from 10 to 35% off peak.

Talk with your trusted home mortgage professional to discuss the financing opportunities in 2019 for your local market.

26 Oct 2018
By Kevin Gahagan

Could Fed Interest Rate Hike Help Home Buyers?

Real Estate

Could Fed Interest Rate Hike Help Home BuyersNews of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates appears to have caused unnecessary panic among people poised to purchase a first home or a larger one for a growing family.

Headlines and news reports that talk about interest rates being at their highest since 2014 can be alarming. Announcements from the Fed that rates would increase four times in 2018 and again in 2019 seems downright scary. After all, isn’t it logical that increased interest rates mean that monthly mortgage payment could be substantially higher?

As it turns out, neither the click-bait headlines about dramatic rate increases or higher monthly premiums are real-life concerns. A thoughtful look at interest rates and rational thinking about homeownership indicates that today’s market could be an excellent time to buy.

Interest Rates Are Not Frighteningly High

Americans have largely come to recognize that the media thrives on scare tactics to get you to tune in or click a link. Stating that interest rates are the highest since 2014 is a fair statement, on its face. But the reality behind the numbers is entirely different if you take a long look at historical rates.

Homebuyers that stepped into the market as the economy began to surge in 2017 did a fine job of positioning themselves. That’s because they took full advantage of tremendously low rates while moving into a stable jobs environment. It’s important to keep in mind that low Fed standards of 1.5 percent had already increased from the historic low.25 percent set in 2008 to stimulate the horrific economy.

As the Great Recession hit, unemployment started its climb to 10 percent in 2009 and things were generally bad. Wonderfully low interest rates were of little use when people were out of work and those who were employed lacked job stability. The Fed’s goal was to gradually increase rates as the economy steadily recovered. The common wisdom was to raise rates to 3 percent by 2020.

But if you look back over rate data from the 1970s until the Great Recession, rates tended to be at 5 percent or higher. The Fed’s reported intentions would likely leave potential homebuyers in a better position than most over the 40-50 years. That’s because the country is in the midst of an economic surge that appears to have legs.

Fed’s Hike Won’t Deter Many Buyers

The Chicken Little’s of the housing sector may be crying the sky is falling, but nothing could be further from the truth. The modest increases planned by the Fed do not substantially change a potential homeowner’s buying power.

For those with a specific monthly mortgage payment window, the rate increase could slightly change the listing price options moving forward. On the other side of the coin, rate hikes tend to flatten or at least slow asking prices. While buyers cull together a down payment, home prices may be slowing. That could prove very beneficial in terms of securing a dream home.

The basic point about the Federal Reserve raising rates is that this should not necessarily be viewed as a negative. The Fed reportedly had a long-term plan that followed alongside our economic recovery. If you compare the current rates against wage increases, low unemployment, and a juggernaut economy, home buyers are in the driver’s seat right now.

Whether you are interested in buying a new property or refinancing your current property, contact your trusted mortgage professional to find out about the current financing options available.

23 Oct 2018
By Kevin Gahagan

NAHB: Builder Confidence in Housing Market Ticks Up in October

Real Estate

NAHB Builder Confidence in Housing Market Ticks Up in OctoberHome builder confidence in national housing market conditions rose one index point for a reading of 68 in October. Readings over 50 indicate that most builders are confident about market conditions. Rolling three-month averages showed mixed results. The Northeastern region gained three points for an index reading of 57; the Midwestern region lost two index points with a reading of 57 and the Southern region posted a gain of one point with a reading of 70. The Western region held steady at 74.

Readings for sub-categories of the Housing Market index showed a one-point gain to 74 for current market conditions, Builder confidence in market conditions over the next six months also gained one point for a reading of 75 index points. Builder confidence in buyer traffic rose four points to 53. This was remarkable as historical readings for buyer traffic rarely rose above the benchmark reading of 50.

Demand for Homes Rises

The National Association of Home Builders reported that demand for homes increased regardless of high home prices, rising mortgage rates and low inventories of available homes. Labor shortages and high cost of buildable lots continued to weigh on builder confidence. Analyst predictions that home prices have peaked did not impact October’s builder confidence readings.

Home Builders Look Toward Affordable Housing

When the current housing boom started, builders concentrated on building high-end homes as cash buyers and investors fueled demand. Home prices rose quickly as inventories of homes for sale dwindled; first-time and moderate-income home buyers were sidelined as affordable homes were quickly snapped up. Strict mortgage qualification requirements presented challenges to buyers with credit problems. Consumers struggle with home price growth that exceeds inflation and wage increases.

As analysts report that home prices may have hit their peak the highest reading for builder confidence in recent months was 74 in December 2017. Slowing increases in home prices have signaled builders that favorable housing market conditions may have reached a tipping point. If another recession occurs, those who bought their homes at the top of the market and who have little equity are most at risk. Analysts cited high priced coastal areas as ripe for this risk. Meanwhile, builders are looking to create more affordable housing in response to signals of slowing growth in residential real estate markets.

Contact your trusted mortgage professional to find out about about the market trends specific to your area and how those conditions may impact your financing options.

12 Oct 2018
By Kevin Gahagan

U.S. Wage Increases Could Help Home Buyers

Mortgage

U.S. Wage Increases Could Help Home BuyersThe struggle to achieve the American homeownership dream often feels like it happens in a vacuum. Everyday people work hard, save money and polish up their credit to get a low mortgage rate.

But there are powerful forces at work that are far beyond each person’s control. And until recently, the gap between American wage growth and rising home prices was widening. According to data coming out of the U.S. Department of Labor, unemployment recently hit a 49-year low and wages are enjoying the greatest uptick in nearly a decade. That is good news for prospective home buyers.

American Wages On The Rise

The 2018 economic news has seemed like one long greatest hits album. Historic-low unemployment for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans has spurred confidence among these groups and the national unemployment has been steadily under 4-percent. The stock markets are booming, and the GDP growth has been impressive.

But there has been some frustration over stubborn wages that haven’t kept pace with other metrics. A report following stagnant salaries in February pointed to no slow down between rising home prices and wallowing pay rates. The growth rate was reportedly a modest 0.1 percent gain in February and that put Americans behind the curve in terms of buying homes.

But numbers coming out of the second quarter jobs report point to a 10-year high wage increase. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics reported wages are rising as employers compete to fill positions and the 12-month increase stands at 2.9 percent through August.

These are key numbers that may put a smile on potential home buyers’ faces.

  • Wages rose 0.5 percent in the second quarter of 2018.
  • Through August, wages rose 2.9 percent over the previous 12-month period.
  • Private industry compensation increased by 2.9 percent.
  • Government compensation increased by 2.3 percent, down from 2.6 in 2017.
  • Sales jobs gained by 3.5 percent.
  • Transportation jobs increased by 3.4 percent.

Experts are also claiming that setbacks from hurricanes likely blocked wage growth from topping the 2.9 high in 2009.

Where The Housing Market Stands

There’s little doubt that the surging economy put a higher number of Americans in position to purchase homes. However, inventory has remained well behind demand and that created a seller’s market with rising listing prices. But home prices are coming within reach for more people in 2018 and possibly 2019 market.

Since bottoming out in 2102, today’s home prices reportedly stand at about 6 percent higher than they were at their 2006 peak. That is not necessarily an indication that another housing bubble exists. Rather, the uptick in home prices is a natural reaction to an inventory shortage and economic growth.

The optimistic news for prospective home buyers is that wage growth appears to be gaining on home costs. As the gap closes, it’s likely that more and more people will be financially able to secure the American Dream of owning a home.

If you are in the market for a new home, contact your trusted home mortgage professional to start the pre-approval process.