Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on construction spending and public and private-sector employment data. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Census Bureau Reports Construction Sending Up by 9.8 Percent Year-Over-Year

Construction spending rose by nearly 10 percent year-over-year in April. Overall construction spending rose by $1.542 billion on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Construction spending rose by 0.20 percent in April, which fell short of the expected 0.50 percent reading, and was lower than the March reading of 1.0 percent growth in construction spending.

Residential construction spending increased by one percent in April as compared to the March reading of 2.60 percent. Spending on single-family construction rose by 1.30 percent in April as compared to the March reading of 2.20 percent. Rapidly rising construction costs were fueled by higher lumber costs, but builders said that increasing costs for steel, copper, and plastic also drove higher spending. Builders expect supply chain delays and rising prices to continue impacting all types of construction projects.

Mortgage Rates Inch Up, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week, but average rates remained below three percent. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by four basis points to 2.99 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged  2.27 percent and did not change from the previous week’s reading.  The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was five basis points higher at 2.64 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims were lower last week with 385,000 new claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 405,000 initial claims filed. Continuing claims rose to 3.77 million claims as compared to the previous week’s reading of 3.60 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

Jobs Increase as Unemployment Rate Falls

The government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 559,000 public and private-sector jobs added in May; ADP reported 978,000 private-sector jobs added in May as compared to April’s reading of 654,000  private-sector jobs added. The national unemployment rate fell to 5.80 percent in May as compared to April’s reading of 6.10 percent and an expected reading of 5.90 percent. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reports included readings on home price growth, new and pending home sales, and inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Case-Shiller Reports Highest Gains in Home Prices Since 2005

March home prices grew at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 13.20 percent according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index for March. National home prices gained 12.00 percent year-over-year in February; the corresponding 20-City Home Price Index reported that Phoenix, Arizona held the top spot for home price growth for the 22^nd consecutive month; home prices rose by 20.00 percent year-over-year. San Diego, California followed with 19.10 percent growth in home prices, and Seattle, Washington posted year-over-year home price growth of 18.30 percent for third place in the 20-City Home Price Index.

All cities participating in the 20-City Index reported faster growth in March home prices than in February. Rapidly rising home prices pressed new home sales down from the March reading of 917,000 new homes sold to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 863,000 new homes sold in April. The inventory of new homes for sale dipped to a 3.80 month supply in April as compared to a 4.60 month supply of new homes available in March. Builders faced continuing obstacles including high materials and labor costs that reduced their ability to produce the volume of homes needed to meet ongoing demand.

Pending home sales were -4.40 percent lower in April as compared to expectations of a 1.00 percent increase in pending sales; Pending home sales rose by 1.70 percent in March. High competition for homes and fewer available homes along with higher prices sidelined prospective buyers as affordability concerns increased. 

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by five basis points to 2.95 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.27 percent and were two basis points lower. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were unchanged at 2.59 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and  0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.20 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 406,000 initial claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 444,000 new claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 3.64 million claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 3.74 million continuing jobless claims filed.

Inflation rose by 0.50 percent in April, which matched analysts’ expectations. Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.70 percent and exceeded expectations of 0.60 percent growth.in April. The March reading for core inflation showed 0.40 percent growth. The Federal Reserve has an annual goal of two percent inflation; current readings indicate that inflation may rise above the two percent benchmark if the current pace of inflation continues. 

What’s Next

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending and readings on public and private-sector jobs growth. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

Last week’s scheduled economic news included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes and weekly reports on jobless claims and mortgage rates.

March Sales of  Previously-owned Homes Dip; New Home Sales Rise

Sales of single-family homes fell in March as demand for homes exceeded availability. 6.01 million previously-owned homes were sold in March on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis; analysts expected a pace of 6.11 million sales based on February’s reading of 6.24 million sales of existing homes. The March reading for sales of pre-owned homes was 3.70 percent lower year-over-year and was the lowest sales pace reported since August 2020.

High demand for homes coupled with low inventories of available homes constricted sales. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors® said, “Sales for March would have been measurably higher had there been more inventory.” Mr. Yun also addressed affordability concerns arising from lean inventories of homes and high demand. “Without an increase in supply, the society’s wealth division will widen with homeowners enjoying sizable equity gains while renters will struggle to become homeowners.” 

The average price of a single-family home in the U.S. rose to $329,100 in March, which indicates year-over-year growth of 17.20 percent in home prices. While a six-month supply of homes for sale indicates an average inventory, the March inventory of homes for sale rose to a 2.10-month supply from February’s 2.0- month inventory of homes for sale.

Shortages of existing homes for sale boosted March sales of new homes, which sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.02 million sales. Analysts expected 888,000 new homes to be sold year-over-year in March based on February’s sales pace of 846,000 new homes sold. Rapidly rising materials costs created obstacles for builders and limited their ability to meet the need for affordable homes, but they raced to meet the ongoing demand for homes.

Mortgage Rates Mixed; Jobless Claims Fall

Average mortgage rates fell below three percent last week; the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by seven basis points to 2.97 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.29 percent and were six basis points lower. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by three basis points to an average rate of 2.83 percent.

Jobless claims were lower last week with 547,000 new claims filed; analysts expected 603,000 initial claims filed. 586,000 first-time claims were filed in the prior week. Claims were also lower for ongoing claims filed. 3.67 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to 3.67 million continuing claims filed in the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, data on pending home sales, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.