Financial Reports

A number of important consumer related data reports were released last week, giving us a clearer picture on inflation impacts and the state of the economy on a broader scale. First up, looking at the First Revision of GDP numbers, we are seeing they had fallen slightly below expectations, but still showing the economy has not deflated at all as of the result of the prior years’ repeated rate hikes.

With inflation trending down, this makes for a convincing argument that rate cuts are due this year. This also sets the stage for the official consumer confidence reports, revealing mounting anxiety regarding the political climate of the nation, marking the first decline in four months.

Next up, PCE and Personal Income spending has shown that in a number of areas, inflation is still impacting a number of factors for the consumer and general cost of living. Personal spending was expected to slow, but the slowing has been more impactful than anticipated. Despite this, across lending partners and markets alike, there is a consensus that rate cuts are highly likely.

GDP (First Revision)

The growth rate of the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter was downgraded slightly to a 3.2% annual pace, but the economy continues to grow swiftly and is showing few signs of slowing down. Originally, the government said gross domestic product had expanded at a 3.3% rate in the final three months of 2023. The figure is adjusted for inflation.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence retreated in February from a six-month high, partly due to the angst surrounding the U.S. presidential election. The closely followed index fell to 106.7 from a revised 110.9 in January, the Conference Board said Tuesday. It was the first decline in three months.

PCE Index

Inflation rose in January at the fastest pace in four months, based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE gauge, in a sign price pressures might not return to low pre-pandemic levels as quickly as hoped.

The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Wednesday. That matched the forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending in the U.S. got off to a slow start in the new year, perhaps a hangover from a big holiday shopping season. Household outlays increased by a mere 0.2% last month, the government said Thursday. It was the smallest increase in three months.

Pending Home Sales Report

Pending home sales fell 4.9% in January as rising mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the housing market, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.03% with the current rate at 6.26%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.04% with the current rate at 6.94%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.07% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.57%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.10% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.57%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 202,000.

What’s Ahead

This upcoming week, we have the non-farm payrolls which indicates how much payroll increases have kept up with inflation. Along with that is the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and U.S. Trade Balance, which has been in a deficit for some time; although the broader impact on the economy has not yet been determined by this.

A government holiday followed by an extremely light release schedule has led to a limited amount of data, with the FOMC Minutes being the only impactful report for the prior week. The Federal Reserve had stated they will continue to maintain their current stance in light of the most recent inflation data. With rates holding into the year, as a result, lending partners have started back tracking some of their recent rate cuts. Lastly, Unemployment Numbers are seen to be well within expectations.

FOMC Minutes

“Most” officials noted the risks of moving too quickly to cut rates and wanted to carefully assess the data for more progress on inflation, the minutes said.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase by 0.17% with the current rate at 6.29%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase by 0.13% with the current rate at 6.90%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.01% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.64%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.03% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.67%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 201,000 compared to the expected claims of 216,000. The prior week landed at 213,000.

What’s Ahead

There is a slate of quarterly reports due next week, which will help understand the current conditions. With the Federal Reserve’s current stance on cutting rates any time soon, it seems unlikely many of those reports will have any significant impact. We should expect Consumer Confidence reports, first revision of GDP numbers, and PCE along with PMI numbers that will let us know the current state of manufacturing and trade deficits.

Last week’s release of CPI and PPI resulted in slightly higher than expected inflation rates which led to speculation that the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates will likely come much further in the year than anticipated. There was some suspicion that if inflation rates would continue to exceed predictions, it could result in another rate hike. Lending partners have responded in kind with the first significant increase in lending rates since the end of November. However, The Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance. 

Other reports such as US Retail Sales are showing a drop, but this is contrasted by the Consumer Sentiment reports which show an opposite effect — with the economic landscape showing an overall declining inflation rate and strong job market.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices rose a sharper-than-expected 0.3% in January and the rate of inflation remained stuck above 3% — a small but possibly temporary setback in the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation.

The consumer price index was forecast to rise 0.2% by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The yearly rate of inflation slipped to 3.1% from 3.4% in the prior month. It hasn’t been below 3% since March 2021.

Producer Price Index

Wholesale costs rose in January at the fastest pace in five months, possibly another sign that inflation won’t slow toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target as fast as hoped.

The producer-price index rose 0.3% last month, a considerably stronger increase than the 0.1% forecast from economists polled by the Wall Street Journal.

Consumer Sentiment Report

The numbers: Consumer sentiment crept up in early February to a 31-month high, fueled by slowing inflation and a strong job market. The first of two readings of the sentiment survey this month rose to 79.6 from 79.0 in January, the University of Michigan said Friday. That’s the highest reading since July 2021.

U.S. Retail Sales

Sales at retailers fell 0.8% in January to mark the biggest drop in 10 months, indicating that Americans took a timeout after a flush of spending during the holiday season.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase by 0.22% with the current rate at 6.12%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase by 0.13% with the current rate at 6.77%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.36% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.65%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.41% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.70%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 212,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week we should be expecting a number of speakers from the Federal Reserve discussing the current state of the economy, PCE Index data releases being the largest releases with minor releases in Advanced Retail Inventory numbers which should indicate the state of consumer spending.

This week is the release of Core CPI and PPI numbers for January. The only data release of note is the trade deficit and the usual unemployment reports for the prior week. The current trade deficit for the U.S. is operating precisely within expectations and correlating GDP numbers. This current week will provide further guidance for the Federal Reserve as the next release of inflation data is released.

U.S. Trade Deficit

The U.S. trade deficit rose slightly in December, but the annual gap still fell to the lowest level in three years and added to the economy’s strong performance in 2023.

Record deficits in 2021 and 2022, by contrast, acted as a big drag on gross domestic product, the official scorecard of the U.S. economy.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 5.90%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by 0.01% with the current rate at 6.64%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.05% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.22%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.06% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.24%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 218,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 227,000.

What’s Ahead

Core CPI and Core PPI numbers are the primary reports being released this week. Given the Federal Reserve hesitation to move on any pending rate cuts, each release of inflation data that goes well, further adds conviction the Federal Reserve will soon be looking to cut rates after a satisfactory period.

The largest and most impactful financial data being released is as always the Federal Reserve rate decision. This time it fit well within the expectations across the broader market and lending partners, in that the Federal Reserve still remains to hold the current standing, and is showing push back on any potential rate cuts coming March when the next rate decision is planned. 

Most of the economic indicators from last year and this month have added fuel to the speculation that the Federal Reserve has largely met their goals and there is a strong upside pending rate cuts. 

The other rates of note are ISM manufacturing numbers, which have fallen in line showing growth at the start of the year. Consumer sentiment also has jumped to the highest levels in the last two and a half years.

Federal Rate Decision

Continuing to maintain current rates, the Federal Reserve has remarked that March is probably not the “base case” for when the Fed might start lowering its benchmark rate, Powell said during the press conference on Wednesday afternoon.

“Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time” for its first rate cut, he said. “But that’s to be seen.”

Consumer Sentiment

The numbers: Consumer sentiment shot up in January to the highest level since the summer of 2021, as Americans got some relief from waning inflation and saw an improved economy.

The final reading of the sentiment survey edged up to 79.0 from a preliminary 78.8 earlier in the month and from 69.7 in December, the University of Michigan said Friday. That is the highest mark since July 2021.

PMI / ISM Factory Index

A closely watched index that measures U.S. manufacturing activity rose to 49.1% in January from 47.1% in the prior month, according to the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday. That is the highest level since October.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.02% with the current rate at 5.94%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.06% with the current rate at 6.63%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.02% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.18%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.03% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.22%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 224,000 compared to the expected claims of 214,000. The prior week landed at 215,000.

What’s Ahead

An extremely light week ahead after a Rate Decision from the Federal Reserve, with nothing of note except the usual unemployment numbers. The week after next week will be the first release of inflation numbers following the Consumer Price Index data.