Financial Reports

Last week’s economic reports included readings on home prices, new and pending home sales and a statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. The University of Michigan issued its monthly statement on consumer sentiment and weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Picks Up in November

According to Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index for November, home prices rose by 3.50 percent on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to October’s reading of 3.20 percent. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index showed that home prices for cities included in the Index rose 2.60 percent year-over-year. All 20 cities showed growth in home prices on a month-to-month basis.

Cities with top rates of home price growth have shifted from high-cost coastal metro areas to more moderately priced areas inland and in the South. Phoenix, Arizona reported a reading of 5.90 percent growth in home prices year-over-year and has held first place in the 20-City Home Price Index for six consecutive months.

Charlotte, North Carolina held second place with a year-over-year home price gain of 5.20 percent. Tampa, Florida reported a  5.00 percent gain in home prices and held third place in the 20-City Index.

New Home Sales dipped by 3000 sales in December to a rate of 694,000 sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. December sales of new homes fell short of the expected reading of 735,000 sales according to the Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The seasonally-adjusted inventory of 327,000 new homes available represented a 5.70 months supply of new homes based on the current sales rate.

In related news, the National Association of Realtors® reported fewer pending home sales in December; all regions reported fewer pending sales in December as compared to November. Pending sales in the Northeast were -4.00 percent lower; pending sales in the Midwestern region fell by -3.60 percent and  December’spending sales in the South and West were -5.50 percent and -5.40 percent lower respectively.

The steep drop in pending home sales was attributed to slim inventories of available homes, but fewer buyers make offers on homes during the winter holiday season. Pending sales represent homes for which purchase offers have been received but not closed.

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to hold the Fed’s benchmark interest rate at a range of 1.50 percent to 1.75 percent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that current domestic economic conditions were strong, but he also noted potential unrest in global economies due to factors including the outbreak of a highly contagious Asian flu virus.

Mortgage Rates and New Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week with the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages nine basis points lower at 3.51 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged four basis points lower at 3.00 percent; interest rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were four basis points lower at an average of 3.24 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages,

Fewer first-time jobless claims were filed last week; 216,000 new claims were filed as compared to 223,000 claims filed the prior week. The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 99.80; analysts expected a reading of 99.10 based on December’s reading of 99.30.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on construction spending, public and private-sector job growth and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reports included readings on public and private sector jobs, the national unemployment rate and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new unemployment claims.

ADP: Private-Sector Job Growth Eases in December

Private-sector jobs increased by 202,000 jobs in December and exceeded expectations. November’s original reading of 60,000 new private-sector jobs was revised to 124,000 jobs.

Three and six-month average private-sector job growth rates were 159,000 and 151,000 jobs, but these growth rates fell short of 2018’s average monthly job growth rate of 218,000 jobs added.

Analysts said that private-sector job growth has settled into a more modest but steady pattern.

Non-Farm Payrolls: Public and Private-Sector Job Growth Slower in December

The Commerce Department reported 145,000 public and private-sector jobs added in December with 145,000 new jobs reported. Analysts expected 165,000 new jobs added, which was markedly less than 256,000 new jobs added in November.

Reduction in new jobs during December was likely due to slowing in holiday hiring and winter weather. Average hourly earnings for December rose by 0.10 percent and were lower than expectations of  0.30 percent growth. Slower wage growth contributed to predictions of slowing economic growth.

The national unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.50 percent in December.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell eight basis points to 3.64 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged nine basis points lower at 3.07 percent.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 13 basis points lower at 3.30 percent. Discount points for fixed-rate mortgages averaged 0.70 percent and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Freddie Mac predicted that rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will average 3.80 percent in 2020 as compared to 4.00 percent in 2019.

Weekly jobless claims fell to 214,000 new claims; analysts expected 219,000 new claims filed. 223,000 first-time claims were filed the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions. Commerce Department readings on housing starts and inflation will also be released. The University of Michigan will post data on consumer sentiment; weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will be posted as scheduled.

Last week’s economic reports included readings from Case-Schiller Home Price Indices and National Association of  Realtors® data on pending home sales. The Conference Board of the U.S. Senate also released its Consumer Confidence Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Case-Shiller Reports 0.10 Percent Uptick in National  Home Price Index

The National Home Price Index issued by Case-Shiller for October reported a year-over-year increase of 3.20 percent in home prices. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reflected the influence of low inventories of affordable homes as pricey metro areas reported slower growth if not declines in home-price growth.

 The top three cities reporting highest year-over-year home prices were Phoenix, Arizona with5.80 percent growth; Tampa, Florida with 4.90 percent growth and Charlotte, North Carolina, which had 4.80 percent home price growth.

Analysts said that the shift in higher home-price growth rates to smaller eastern and southern metro areas was evidence of continued shortages of affordable homes in coastal and major metro areas. Home prices in San Francisco, California declined for the third consecutive month in October after posting double-digit home price growth in recent years.

Pending home sales,  which are sales for which purchase offers have been made but not completed, rose 1.20 percent in November as compared to October. Regionally, pending home sales reports were mixed. The Western region led with a 5.50 percent growth rate in pending home sales. Pending home sales were 1.00 percent higher in the Midwest and fell by -0.10 percent in the Northeast. Pending home sales fell by 0.20 percent in the  South. 

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®, said that “The supply of available homes is not yet meeting healthy demand.” Real estate pros consider pending home sales a gauge of future closings.  

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Dip

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week; 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.72 percent and were two basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by three basis points and averaged 3.16 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages was one basis point higher at 3.46 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell by 2000 claims to 222,000 claims filed last week; analysts expected a reading of 223,000 initial jobless claims filed. The U.S. Conference Board reported a lower consumer confidence reading of 126.50 in December, but this was caused by an upwardly-revised November index reading of 126.80.

Consumer confidence in current economic conditions rose 4.40 points to 170.00 points, but this momentum was offset by the reading for consumer confidence in economic conditions over the next six months from 100.30 points to 97.40 points. Analysts said that flagging consumer confidence indicated that the economy is not likely to grow significantly in the next six months.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes labor sector readings on private and public job growth and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will also be released.